ABSTRACT
The effects of electric power interruptions resulting from severe power outages were investigated and analyzed using five cold rooms as a case study. Two approaches have been developed and used. One is based on customers‘ survey that mainly investigates the preparatory actions that a customer may take to reduce the effect of outages. The other one is based on a mathematical model using standard deviation as a measure of dispersion. The spearman‘s correlation factor with the aid of visual basic program was used to X-ray the cost implication involved in running these cold rooms with the utilization of power supply from PHCN to be more economical than powering from individual power generating sets. Furthermore the regression cost analysis showed that cold room 1, cold room 2, cold room 3, cold room 4, and cold room 5 have a spearman correlation factor of 40.04%, 41.93%, 39.16%, 31.97% and 31.09% respectively, which shows how expensive the use of private power source over using PHCN, while the frequency distribution of power outages stood at a standard deviation of
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page – – – – – – – – – – i
Declaration – – – – – – – – – – ii
Certification – – – – – – – – – – iii
Dedication – – – – – – – – – – iv
Acknowledgement – – – – – – – – – v
Abstract – – – – – – – – – – – vi
Table of Contents – – – – – – – – vii
List of Tables – – – – – – – – – – x
List of Figures – – – – – – – – – xi
List of Appendices – – – – – – – – – xii
CHAPTER ONE: Introduction
1.1 Background of Study – – – – – – – – 1
1.1.1 Classification of Outages – – – – – – – 2
1.1.2 Classification of Damages Caused By Electrical Power System – – 4
1.2 Statement of Problem – – – – – – – – 5
1.3 Aim and Objectives – – – – – – – – 5
1.4 Significance of Study – – – – – – – – 5
1.5 Scope of the Study – – – – – – – – 6
CHAPTER TWO: Literature Review
2.1 Historical Emergence of Power Generation and Consumption in Nigeria – 7
2.2 Historical Blackout in the World – – – – – – 8
2.3 Effect of Power Failure on Households – – – – – 11
2.4 Effect of Power Failure on the Commercial Sector – – – – 12
2.5 Effect of Power Failure on the Industrial Sector – – – – 12
2.6 Power Generation Stations in Nigeria. – – – – – 13
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2.7 Other Sources of Electricity – – – – – – – 15
2.7.1 Solar Energy – – – – – – – – – 15
2.7.2 Fossils fuel – – – – – – – – – 16
2.7.3 Hydroelectric Energy – – – – – – – – 16
2.7.4 Nuclear Power – – – – – – – – – 16
2.7.5 Wind Power – – – – – – – – – 17
2.8 Statistical and Regression Modeling Tool. – – – – – 17
2.8.1 Frequency: – – – – – – – – – 17
2.8.2 Mean: – – – – – – – – – – 17
2.8.3 Standard Deviation – – – – – – – – 18
2.8.4 Regression Analysis – – – – – – – – 19
2.9 Trans-Amadi community brief – – – – – – 20
2.10 Review of Past works – – – – – – – – 20
CHAPTER THREE: Methodology
3.1 Introduction – – – – – – – – – 22
3.2 Description of the cases – – – – – – – 22
3.2.1 Cold Room 1 – – – – – – – – – 22
3.2.2 Cold Room 2 – – – – – – – – – 22
3.2.3 Cold Room 3 – – – – – – – – – 23
3.2.4 Cold Room 4 – – – – – – – – – 23
3.2.5 Cold Room 5 – – – – – – – – – 23
3.3 Data collection – – – – – – – – 23
CHAPTER FOUR:Results and Discussion
4.1 Results of the Study – – – – – – – – 36
4.1.1 Standard Deviation Result – – – – – – – 36
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4.1.2 Cost Analysis of the Different Cold Rooms by Statistical Mean – – 39
4.1.3 Cost Regression Analysis Results – – – – – – 49
4.2 Discussions – – – – – – – – – 57
4.2.1 Analysis of Customers Response – – – – – – 58
4.2.2 Cost Estimation Based on Customer’s Perception – – – – 59
4.2.3 Standard Deviation Result – – – – – – – 60
4.3 Cost Regression Analysis Results – – – – – – 61
CHAPTER FIVE Conclusion and Recommendations
5.1 Conclusion – – – – – – – – – 62
5.2 Recommendations – – – – – – – – 63
REFERENCES – – – – – – – – – 65
APPENDIX I – – – – – – – – – 67
APPENDIX II – – – – – – – – – 72
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CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of Study
Electric power interruptions occur when system capacity, due to severe power outages, is insufficient to meet the system load levels. During these periods of inadequacy, outage costs will be borne by the utility, its customers and perhaps, by’ the entiresociety. The utility outage costs include loss of revenue, loss of future sales and increasedrepair expenditure and maintenance. These costs usually form only a smallpart of the total outages costs. The greater part is that borne by the consumers. Theoutage costs depend on many factors and situations, some of which are discussed inthe following sections. The problem of estimating outage costs is affected by the perceivedcosts of an electric outage and the point in time when a consumer would like tobuy electric energy but is unable to do so. Since there are different classes ofconsumers,each will tolerate loss of service differently. A residential consumer may suffer agreat deal of hardship if an outage occurs during a hot summer day or while he is engagingin domestic activities but it may be of little inconvenience to a commercialuser who is forced to close until power is restored. Also an outage may cause a greatloss to an industrial user if it occurs during the time of the production process. Therefore,consumers do not perceive service interruption to the same degree of hardship.The outage costs to a particular consumer depend also on the alternatives availableto that individual at the time of service interruption. If the outages are not expected,the consumer may have very limited alternatives and may incur a great loss. On theother hand, if an adequate warning is given, the losses may be averted or mitigated.Also, as an outage continues or spreads to a larger subset of society, the society costwill tend to increase and will include such indirect
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costs as effects of anxiety, loss ofproducts, food spoilage, health hazards, etc. The major aspect of outage costs estimation is to assess the worth of power system reliabilityin order to compare it withthe cost of power system so as to establish an appropriate system reliability level. Inthis regard, it is important to realize that, while the evaluation of power system reliabilityhas become a well established practice over the last decade, the assessment ofthe worth of reliability or conversely, the estimation of costs of losses, which resultfrom system unreliability, is still immature. The major reason for this is that quantificationof interruption costs is an intricate and often a subjective task.
1.1.1 Classification of Outages
Power outages are classified under the following headings (PHCN, 2012)
i. Forced outages
ii. Emergency outages
iii. Planned outages
i. Forced outages
These are primarily as a result of faulty situations in the network which are normally initiated by electrical sensing devices called relays. It could also be as a result of over loading in a particular branch of the network which the relay is overseeing.
ii. Emergency outages
As the name implies this type of power interruption is initiated by qualified PHCN personnel under emergency situations to avert any danger which may be as a result of temporary removal of load (load shedding) or as a result of poor generation.
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iii. Planned outages
These are power interruptions which are initiated by PHCN to carry out maintenance work on their equipment or to connect new extensions to the existing ones. Similarly, in transmission stations, the bulk transformers, circuit breakers, isolators, protective and communication equipment are often time scheduled to be over hauled so as to enhance their efficiency (PHCN, 2012).
The faults that can lead to maintenance, reconstruction, or repairs to be carried out in the network are: (PHCN, 2012).
i. Changing of broken wooden cross arm involving High Tension (H.T.) lines;
ii. Vegetation on line;
iii. Changing of broken or collapsed wooden or reinforced concrete poles;
iv. Replacement of shattered disc or pot insulators, lightening arresters, and closure of J & P ‗D‘ fuse that was ill-fitted;
v. Faulty underground cable;
vi. Mending of broken up riser cable ends
vii. Extension of H.T. overhead lines;
viii. Mending of jumper cuts, among others
ix. Construction of substations;
x. Installation of RMU and so on
Faults on High-Voltage feeder can be classified into two main groups. These are:
i. Earth fault
ii. Over current fault
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Earth fault may occur as a result of the grounding of the feeders, through vegetation of disc or pin insulator on the lines.
Over-current occurs as a result of the short circuiting of the feeder by a metallic object or vegetation. Over-current can also occur as a result of over loading of the feeders such that relay setting cannot accommodate the excess load.
In summary, any power outages has the general consequences of throwing the electricity consumers into yet another long hours of electric supply stagnation which may result in both material and economic loss.
1.1.2 Classification of Damages Caused By Electrical Power System
Problems associated with electrical power system can be classified according to their causes namely:
i) Damage resulting from ulterior causes, such as the perching of birds and falling of trees. Failure may be at normal voltage.
ii) Deterioration of insulation, which is inherent in the system and as a result breakdown may be at normal voltage.
iii) Breakdown due to deterioration of insulation, which is accelerated by self generated surges following switching or other disturbances.
iv) Insulation collapsing due to direct strokes of lighting or consequent disturbances. The fault will not be normal voltage. (Okeke, 1998)
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1.2 Statement of Research Problem
Electrical power disturbances have been a major constraint in our society Nigeria, as it influences our socio-economical activities. This Project work critically viewed the problems and cost associated with assessing the effects of electrical power outages on commercial consumers (cold room consumers) using electricity in Trans-Amadi area of Port Harcourt, Rivers State. Thiswork identifiedthe problems of electrical power transmission and distribution that influences electrical power outages to cold-room operators at Trans-Amadi area of Port-Harcourt.
1.3 Aim and Objectives
The aim of this project is to access the electrical power outages effect on commercial cold room operators in the Trans-Amadi area of Port-Harcourt. The specific objectives are;
i) To examine the impact of power outages on electricity demands by cold-room operators in Trans-Amadi area of Port-Harcourt.
ii) To show the frequency distribution and obtain the standard deviation of power outages for a period of three years.
iii) To show the cost of running a private generating source of power over PHCN using the spearman‘s correlation factor.
iv) To proffer solutions andrecommendations to resolving the power outages issues in Nigeria.
1.4 Significance of Study
Considering the Statistical model employed in the analysis of power outages within Trans-Amadi, area of Port-Harcourt, it has been discovered that the electrical power outages within the area under consideration if evenly distributed, the cost effect will be minimal on the commercial
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consumers. Spearman‘s correlation coefficients were used in the cost analysis to compare using individual generating sets and power from the National grid.
1.5 Scope of the Study
This work examines commercial power consumption connected to the National electricity network of PHCN in Trans-Amadi area of Port-Harcourt. It analyzes the cost implication of power supply outages, using the spearman‘s correlation factor and the frequency of distribution of outages by a statistical model.
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