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Economic Impact of Covid 19 on the Development of Kaduna State Nigeria

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to investigate how Covid-19 affects Development of Kaduna state. Covid-19 has been the source of changes in the business environment across world from the beginning of year 2020. The effects on the development of Kaduna state are nearly unknown, therefore this research is unique. The aim of this study is to gain more knowledge on how Development of Kaduna state are responding to the pandemic. By following a qualitative research method, the study will explore and conduct a deeper understanding on the Development of Kaduna state experience through a data collection. The literature review has been established, theories are mostly related to digital business environment and value chain activities. The literature review has been summed up into a conceptual framework which illustrates the connections between the theories and Covid-19.

Furthermore, the conceptual framework has been used to analyze the findings from the empirical data which was conducted in a multi-case study. The analysis chapter discusses similarities differences between the cases and connection to theory. Lastly, the conclusion chapter of this research concludes the findings and analysis, and it contains theoretical implications, recommendations, limitations and suggestions for future research.

 

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of Study

In the message of Hafez Ghanem, the World Bank Vice President to Africa, he said, “COVID-19 pandemic is testing the limits of societies and economies across the World and African countries are likely to be hit particularly hard”.

The possibility of the world’s economic recession is a growing concern for many nations. There have been predictions from economic and social change analyst based on the effect of the novel deadly virus; 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. According to World Bank Group (April, 2020), the economic growth in the Sub- Saharan Africa as projected to decline from 2.4 percent in 2019 by a decreasing rate of -2.1 to -5.1 percent in 2020, causing the first recession in the region in 25 years, while hitting hard on 3 largest economies of Nigeria, South Africa and Angola. The economy of most developing nations encounter a shift in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as such any outbreak affects the economic strength of the nation. When there is epidemic disease outbreak in a nation; economic policies are adopted by the government of the nation. The adverse implication of the global pandemic births macroeconomic policies and general equilibrium on citizens and government of any nation.

According to Madhav, et al (2018), pandemic is a large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease that can greatly increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographical area, and causes significant economic, social, and political disruption. They also asserted that the livelihood of pandemics has increased over the past century due to persistent increase in global travel and integration, urbanization, changes in land use, and greater exploitation of the natural environment. Over the years, pandemic outbreak has plotted great fear in the minds of Nigerians socially, religiously and economically. This has made citizens to barely feed as compared to the pre- pandemic outbreak. Nigeria has faced several outbreaks of deadly diseases which have claimed lives and concurrently posed fear, and untimely affected the economy. Part of the most common diseases in Nigeria are the Smallpox which affected the people of Epe in Lagos State between 1897 to 1917, Leprosy which affected numbers of lives between 1857 to 1859; this led to the establishment of the first hospital in Nigeria by Reverend Father Coquard of the Catholic Church in Abeokuta; the Influenza pandemic which took place between 1918 and 1919 which was caused by an H1N1 virus with avian origin who claimed a total of at least 50 million lives worldwide.

Another epidemic outbreak is the LASSA Fever which was caused and spread through the feces and urine of the multimammate rats Mastomysnatalensis the fever records had occurred in 1950s and later occurred in 2018 which claimed about 3 deaths (Sandra, G and Charles, 2020). In 1976, another outbreak named Ebola virus occurred. The virus is believed to have no exact cause but scientists believed it is animal-borne and most likely from bats; this disease later occurred between 2014 and 2016 claiming about 8 lives (World Health Organization, 2020). Amongst other pandemics in Nigeria are Cancer and HIV/AIDS. It is no more news that these epidemic and pandemic outbreak has an effect on the Nigerian economy.

According to David and David (2006) who asserted that the GDP per capital does not provide a full picture of the economic impacts of an improved health. They further asserted that since health improvements reduces mortality, boost population size as well as productivity, and on reverse case reduces population size of any nation. When the value of the extra lives result from health improvements is taken into account, the effect of health improvements on economies will be much greater than the effect on per capita GDP alone (Bloom, et al, 2006). In a report of the African Union (2020) which declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11th March 2020, the novel deadly disease; Corona Virus 2019 (COVID- 19) has become a global emergency, given its impact on the entire world population and the economy. In the report amounted for a scenario simulation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth which could result to a fall by 0.5 for the year 2020. The report further revealed several other sources predicting a fall in global growth due to the direct effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. The global economy may result to economic recession at least in the first half of the year 2020, when adding the direct and indirect effects of the crisis (e.g. supply and demand shocks, commodity slump, fall in tourism arrivals, etc.).

Agreeing to the fact that this emergent pandemic progresses slowly on the African continent, studies by international organizations have less addressed the economic impact on individual African countries. Indeed, Africa is not immunized from COVID-19 (African Union Report, 2020).

This paper focuses on the effects of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on the development of Kaduna state, Nigeria.

 

1.2 Problem of study

As the topic of the Covid-19 outbreak is still current, there is currently a lack of studies about it and its relation to development of Kaduna state. What is so far known about this subject is that it does affect most types of companies somehow and it is affecting global and national economies.

Frost and Sullivan made a report named “The Coronavirus Outbreak and Its Impact on The Global Economy” (Frost and Sullivan, 2020) states that “The coronavirus isn’t only a global health crisis, but an economic one as well” (Frost and Sullivan, 2020). Many businesses across the world have been struggling due to China coping with the pandemic. The impacts of the Chinese lockdown have affected many outside of China as well, due to them being one of the most important economies and contributing greatly to the global economy (Singh, 2020).

 

The Covid-19 situation is bound to have many consequences for consumers, but many retailers have mixed opinions of the severity of Covid-19 and its impacts. One study by Digital Commerce 360 (Radial and Zoovu 2020), including a survey of 304 retailer shows that when asked what impact they believe the Covid-19 will have on their business, 32% believed that it would go down somewhat while 30% answered that they think it would go up somewhat (Radial and Zoovu, 2020). The study, furthermore, states that online retailers are still continuing to adapt to the continuous changing environment that the Covid-19 outbreak causes. Digital Commerce 360 has a Top 100 list of (North American) retailers based on their global e-commerce sales and as of March 23, 62 of the retailers from the list have closed physical stores due to the pandemic. Most of them now have Covid-19 related messages on their site and these are some of the changes they currently have to adapt to. The study furthermore states that online sales have increased with 52% compared to the same period last year. Offline retailers are now becoming more dependent on their digital commerce strategies and digital tools in order to keep their business going (Radial and Zoovu, 2020).

 

The virus has affected every part of the globe. Major economic powers such as USA, Spain, Italy, Germany, and many more countries have been hard hit by Covid-19 and the world is on a standstill position for an unknown period (Abdin, 2020). All types of production, such as technical, mechanical and technological, have reduced into an insignificant level which may lead into a deep global financial crisis in the near future. Even if Covid-19 is a huge health problem, some businessmen and entrepreneurs must continue with business, because consumption of essentials cannot be stopped during a time like this. The crisis can deepen even further if the supply of essential products is stopped. Therefore, when doing business in times of a pandemic, some strategic planning must be considered (Abdin, 2020). This includes taking precautions of employee’s safety and using alternative modes of communications like digital channels. It is important for companies to adapt to every digital tool available for them and to ensure that the business functions properly during the crisis.

 

The Covid-19 situation is constantly changing, and new challenges emerge. Many people’s daily lives have now changed as some countries are on lockdown and people are generally staying inside more (Hasanat et al., 2020.

The time is measured by the length of time taken from when a consumer hits buy to when the order is picked up by the carrier for delivery and it has generally gone up from 15.1 hours to 21.2 hours (Radial and Zoovu, 2020).

 

1.3 Research question

  1. How is Kaduna state affected by the Covid-19 outbreak?
  2. What are the effects of the pandemic (COVID-19) on different sectors of their economy?
  3. How is the Kaduna state government dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic?

 

1.4 Purpose of study

The purpose of this study is to;

  1. To examine how Kaduna state affected by the Covid-19
  2. To examine the effects of the pandemic (COVID-19) on different sectors of their economy?
  3. To identify how the Kaduna state government dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic?

 

1.5 Significance of study

This report aims to be used as a helping guide for the development of Kaduna state that are still dealing with the pandemic, or possibly similar future

pandemics. Lastly, the research found in this report could possibly contribute to literature that will emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Overall, this research contributes to the understanding of the economic impact of Covid 19 on the economy. The fate of the 48% of workers who work in small businesses is closely tied to the resilience of the small business ecosystem to the massive economic disruption caused by the pandemic.

Delimitations

This study limits itself to only focus on the effects of Covid-19 on the development of Kaduna state that sell   products in Kaduna North LGA. It will not explore the effects of Covid-19 on traditional or offline firms, since the empirical data would then have to focus on only enterprises.

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