Electoral Violence and Democratic Development in Nigeria: a Study of 2011-2015 General Elections
Abstract
This study investigated electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria: a study of 2011-2015 general elections. A quantitative survey research design was adopted to gather data from a sample of 140 respondents. A structured questionnaire was utilized as the primary data collection instrument. The collected data were presented and analyzed using SPSS26, and hypotheses were tested using a t-test. The findings of the study revealed significant insights into the phenomenon of electoral violence and its impact on democratic development in Nigeria. The analysis of the data showed that electoral violence was prevalent during the specified period, with instances of physical assaults, property destruction, and intimidation reported. Ethnic and religious tensions were identified as significant factors contributing to the occurrence of electoral violence. The study also revealed that electoral violence had detrimental effects on political participation, public trust in the electoral process, and the legitimacy of elected leaders and democratic institutions. However, the findings also indicated that there was a consensus among respondents regarding the potential effectiveness of certain strategies in mitigating electoral violence, such as increasing security presence, enhancing civic education, strengthening the enforcement of electoral laws, and engaging political parties and stakeholders in dialogue and conflict resolution. Based on the results, it can be concluded that there is a significant relationship between electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria. The findings highlight the urgent need for proactive measures to address the underlying causes of electoral violence and enhance democratic processes in the country. The study emphasizes the importance of promoting civic education, enforcing electoral laws, and fostering dialogue among political actors to mitigate electoral violence and foster trust in the electoral system. These findings contribute to the existing body of knowledge on electoral violence and provide valuable insights for policymakers, electoral authorities, and other stakeholders involved in democratic processes. In conclusion, this study sheds light on the complex dynamics of electoral violence and its impact on democratic development in Nigeria. The findings underscore the significance of addressing electoral violence as a critical factor in ensuring free, fair, and peaceful elections. The study provides evidence-based recommendations for policy interventions and suggests avenues for further research to deepen our understanding of electoral violence and its implications for democratic consolidation in Nigeria.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Background to the Study
Electoral violence has emerged as a persistent challenge in numerous developing democracies across the globe (Bjarnegård, 2019; Norris, 2020). This form of violence poses a significant threat to the process of democratic development by eroding the credibility of elections, hindering political participation, and destabilizing societies (Møller, 2021; Olayiwola, 2022). Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and the largest democracy on the continent has had its share of electoral violence incidents throughout its history (Akpan & Ugwuoke, 2019).
The prevalence of electoral violence in Nigeria can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, political competition plays a substantial role in instigating such violence. As political parties vie for power, tensions escalate, and rivalries intensify, increasing the likelihood of violent clashes (Okonjo-Iweala, 2019; Obi, 2020). Secondly, Nigeria’s socio-political landscape, characterized by ethnoreligious divisions and socioeconomic inequalities, creates fertile ground for mobilizing violence during electoral processes (Ogbonna, 2021; Ojo, 2022). These factors, combined with a lack of trust in institutions, weak law enforcement, and a culture of impunity, contribute to the persistence of electoral violence in the country (Olaniyan, 2019; Onu, 2020).
The consequences of electoral violence in Nigeria are profound and multifaceted. Firstly, it undermines citizens’ confidence in the electoral process, eroding trust in democratic institutions and threatening the legitimacy of elected leaders (Bello-Imam, 2021; Olugbade, 2022). When people perceive elections as marred by violence and manipulation, they become disillusioned and may choose to abstain from participating in future electoral processes. This leads to a decline in political participation and a weakened democratic culture (Adetula, 2019; Ifemeje, 2020).
Furthermore, electoral violence exacerbates social and political divisions, heightening tensions and deepening existing fault lines within society (Onuoha, 2019; Ogunbodede, 2020). It can further fuel ethnic and religious conflicts, as these fault lines are often exploited by political actors to mobilize support and incite violence (Duruoha, 2021; Ibeanu, 2022). In this way, electoral violence not only disrupts the electoral process but also threatens peace, stability, and national unity.
The 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria played a pivotal role in shaping the country’s democratic trajectory, with notable implications for the issue of electoral violence. The 2011 elections, in particular, marked a significant turning point for Nigeria’s political landscape. For the first time in the country’s history, an incumbent president was defeated in an election, which brought about heightened tensions and an increased risk of violence (Ibrahim & Ibrahim, 2020).
The defeat of the incumbent president in 2011 showcased the growing vibrancy and competitiveness of Nigeria’s democracy. However, it also generated anxieties and uncertainties among political actors, as power dynamics were disrupted, and traditional power structures faced potential challenges (Ibrahim & Ibrahim, 2020). These factors contributed to an environment ripe for the eruption of electoral violence.
The 2015 elections were another critical milestone for Nigeria’s democratic development. They demonstrated the country’s commitment to democratic principles by witnessing a peaceful transfer of power from one political party to another (Onuoha, 2021). This peaceful transition solidified the democratic process, signalling the growing maturity of Nigeria’s democracy and its potential for stability.
However, despite the overall success of the 2015 elections in terms of their peaceful nature, there were still instances of electoral violence reported in certain regions of the country (Onuoha, 2021). These localized incidents underscored the lingering challenges and the need for continuous efforts to address electoral violence comprehensively.
The combination of the 2011 and 2015 general elections provides a unique opportunity to examine the relationship between electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria. The contrasting dynamics and outcomes of these elections highlight the complex interplay between political competition, power transitions, and the occurrence of violence.
By studying the specific context of the 2011-2015 general elections, this research aims to shed light on the factors that contribute to electoral violence, how it impacts democratic development, and the strategies that can be employed to mitigate its occurrence. The findings will provide valuable insights for policymakers, electoral management bodies, civil society organizations, and other stakeholders involved in strengthening democratic processes and preventing electoral violence in Nigeria and beyond.
However, despite these positive developments, the 2011-2015 general elections were marred by incidents of electoral violence (Babawale, 2019; Omotosho, 2020). There were reports of voter intimidation, ballot box snatching, arson, and clashes between political supporters (Hassan, 2021; Egbo, 2022). These acts of violence not only threatened the integrity of the electoral process but also had a detrimental impact on the democratic development of Nigeria.
Electoral violence in Nigeria is often driven by various factors, including political competition, ethnoreligious divisions, and socioeconomic inequalities (Okonjo-Iweala, 2019; Obi, 2020). High levels of poverty, unemployment, and inequality create fertile ground for the mobilization of violence during elections (Ogbonna, 2021; Ojo, 2022). Additionally, the lack of trust in institutions, weak law enforcement, and a culture of impunity contributes to the persistence of electoral violence (Olaniyan, 2019; Onu, 2020).
The consequences of electoral violence are far-reaching. It undermines citizens’ confidence in the electoral process and erodes trust in democratic institutions (Bello-Imam, 2021; Olugbade, 2022). Electoral violence also has a significant impact on political participation, as individuals may be discouraged from exercising their right to vote due to fear of violence (Adetula, 2019; Ifemeje, 2020). Furthermore, electoral violence can exacerbate social and political divisions, leading to long-lasting conflicts and instability (Onuoha, 2019; Ogunbodede, 2020).
Given the challenges posed by electoral violence, it is crucial to understand its patterns, causes, and consequences to develop effective strategies for its prevention and mitigation. This study aims to contribute to the existing knowledge by examining the relationship between electoral violence and democratic development during the 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria. By analyzing the specific context of Nigeria, this study seeks to generate insights that can inform policies and interventions to promote peaceful and credible elections, strengthen democratic institutions, and foster democratic consolidation in the country (Duruoha, 2021; Ibeanu, 2022).
Statement of Problem
The occurrence of electoral violence during the 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria raised concerns about the sustainability and consolidation of democratic practices in the country (Ibrahim & Ibrahim, 2020; Onuoha, 2021). Electoral violence poses a significant challenge to the democratic development of Nigeria, as it undermines the credibility of the electoral process, hampers political participation, and threatens the stability of the nation (Babawale, 2019; Omotosho, 2020).
The 2011-2015 general elections witnessed various forms of electoral violence, including voter intimidation, ballot box snatching, political thuggery, and loss of lives (Babawale, 2019; Omotosho, 2020). These acts of violence not only disrupted the electoral process but also created an atmosphere of fear and insecurity among citizens, deterring them from freely exercising their democratic rights (Hassan, 2021; Egbo, 2022).
Furthermore, electoral violence during this period raised questions about the effectiveness of democratic institutions, such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the security agencies responsible for maintaining law and order during elections (Ibrahim & Ibrahim, 2020; Onuoha, 2021). The inability to prevent and address electoral violence erodes public trust in these institutions and undermines their legitimacy, ultimately hindering the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria.
Moreover, the persistence of electoral violence threatens social cohesion and exacerbates existing ethnic and religious tensions in Nigeria (Babawale, 2019; Omotosho, 2020). The manipulation of identity-based politics during elections can further divide communities, leading to long-term conflicts and instability.
Given these challenges, it is crucial to investigate the causes, patterns, and consequences of electoral violence during the 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria. Understanding the underlying factors that contribute to electoral violence and its impact on democratic development will provide insights for policymakers, electoral management bodies, and civil society organizations to develop effective strategies to mitigate violence, strengthen democratic institutions, and foster the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria (Hassan, 2021; Egbo, 2022).
Objectives of the Study
The study has the following specific objectives:
- To analyze the patterns and forms of electoral violence during the 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria.
- To assess the impact of electoral violence on democratic development in Nigeria.
- To identify strategies and recommendations for mitigating electoral violence and promoting democratic consolidation in Nigeria.
Research Questions
To achieve the above-stated objectives, the study sought to answer the following research questions:
- What were the patterns and forms of electoral violence observed during the 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria?
- How did electoral violence impact democratic development in Nigeria during the specified period?
- What strategies and recommendations can be proposed to mitigate electoral violence and promote democratic consolidation in Nigeria?
Research Hypotheses
The study tested the following research hypotheses:
- There is no significant relationship between electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria during the 2011-2015 general elections.
- The occurrence of electoral violence does not negatively affects political participation and public trust in the electoral process.
- Implementing effective strategies to mitigate electoral violence cannot contribute to the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria.
Significance of the Study
This study holds significant theoretical and practical implications for various stakeholders, including students, scholars, political parties, politicians, and the Nigerian government. For students and scholars, this study contributes to the existing body of knowledge on electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria. Examining the specific case of the 2011-2015 general elections, provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between electoral violence and the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria. Students can utilize the findings and analysis of this study to deepen their understanding of the challenges and dynamics surrounding electoral violence, while scholars can build upon this research to advance theories and frameworks related to electoral violence and democratic processes.
Political parties and politicians can benefit from the practical implications of this study. The findings shed light on the factors that contribute to electoral violence, helping political parties to develop strategies and policies that promote peaceful and credible elections. Politicians can gain a better understanding of the consequences of electoral violence and the importance of fostering a peaceful electoral environment. By adopting the recommendations of this study, political parties and politicians can contribute to the prevention of electoral violence, strengthen democratic practices, and build trust among the electorate.
The Nigerian government can utilize the insights and recommendations of this study to inform policy decisions and reforms aimed at mitigating electoral violence. The findings provide a roadmap for policymakers to develop comprehensive strategies that address the root causes of electoral violence, enhance the capacity of electoral management bodies, and strengthen the legal framework governing elections. By implementing the recommendations, the Nigerian government can create an environment conducive to peaceful and credible elections, thereby fostering democratic consolidation in the country.
In summary, this study’s theoretical contributions benefit students and scholars by expanding knowledge in the field, while the practical implications provide guidance to political parties, politicians, and the Nigerian government in promoting peaceful and credible elections, mitigating electoral violence, and strengthening democratic practices. The insights gained from this research can facilitate informed decision-making and contribute to the overall democratic development of Nigeria.
Scope of the Study
The scope of this study focuses on electoral violence and democratic development during the 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria. The study delves into the specific context of these elections to understand the patterns, causes, and consequences of electoral violence within that timeframe. By narrowing the focus to this particular period, the study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics surrounding electoral violence and its impact on democratic development in Nigeria.
In terms of geographical scope, the study encompasses the entire country of Nigeria. It examines electoral violence incidents that occurred in different regions, taking into account variations in political, social, and cultural contexts that may have influenced the occurrence and intensity of violence.
The study explores various forms of electoral violence, including but not limited to voter intimidation, ballot box snatching, political thuggery, and loss of lives. By examining the breadth of these manifestations, the study aims to capture the multifaceted nature of electoral violence and its implications for democratic development.
Furthermore, the study encompasses multiple stakeholders involved in the electoral process, including political parties, politicians, electoral management bodies, security agencies, and civil society organizations. By considering the perspectives and roles of these actors, the study provides a holistic understanding of the factors contributing to electoral violence and the potential strategies to mitigate it.
However, it is important to note that the study’s scope is limited to the 2011-2015 general elections and does not encompass subsequent electoral cycles or specific local elections within that period. Additionally, while the study focuses on electoral violence, it acknowledges that other factors, such as political and economic dynamics, may also influence democratic development in Nigeria.
By delineating the scope of the study, it ensures a focused and in-depth analysis of the electoral violence and its implications for democratic development during the 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria, while recognizing the broader context and stakeholders involved in the electoral process.
Operational Definition of Terms
To ensure clarity and consistency, the study provides the following operational definitions of key terms:
Electoral violence: Refers to any violent or disruptive acts, such as intimidation, harassment, physical violence, or property destruction, that occur during electoral processes.
Democratic development: Refers to the progress and consolidation of democratic practices, institutions, and norms within a country.
General elections: Refers to national-level elections held to elect political representatives, such as presidential or parliamentary elections.
Democratic consolidation: Refers to the process of strengthening and deepening democratic institutions, norms, and practices to ensure their durability and resilience.
Political participation: Refers to citizens’ engagement in political activities, such as voting, joining political parties, or participating in civil society organizations.
Organization of the Study
The study is organized into five chapters. Chapter One provides an introduction to the research topic, presenting the background, problem statement, objectives, research questions, hypotheses, significance, scope, limitations, and operational definitions of key terms. Chapter Two reviews relevant literature on electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria and globally. Chapter Three presents the research methodology, including the research design, data collection, and analysis methods. Chapter Four analyzes the findings and presents the results of the study. Finally, Chapter Five provides a summary of the study, conclusions, policy recommendations, and suggestions for further research.
REFERENCES
- Onuoha, F. C. (2021). Electoral Violence and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria: An Assessment of the 2015 General Elections. Journal of African Elections, 20(1), 99-124.
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- Rotimi, E. C. (2020). The Democratic Consolidation Process in Nigeria: An Analysis. International Journal of Applied Science and Technology, 10(1), 114-124.
- Saunders, M. N. K., Lewis, P., & Thornhill, A. (2019). Research Methods for Business Students. Pearson.
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