TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page i
Table of contents vii
List of Tables viii
List of Figures ix
List of Appendices
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Types of Modal Split Models 3
1.3 Aim and Objectives 4
1.4 Justification for the Study 4
1.5 Scope of the study
1.6 Description of the study Area
Chapter Two: Literature Review
2.1 Mode choice 10
2.1.1 Factors influencing choice of Mode 11
2.2 Factors Affecting Mode choice Decision
2.3 Theoretical Development in Mode choice Models
2.4 Transport policies and mode choice decision 16
2.5 Urban Travel Patterns 17
2.6 Approaches and Strategies use in planning for journey to work 20
2.7 Factors Affecting the Attractiveness of Transportation Mode 22
2.7.1 Cost 22
2.7.2 Speed and Reliability 23
2.8 Factors that Affect Journey to Work 24
2.8.1 Transport Cost and Residential Location 24
2.8.2 Modal choice 26
2.8.3 Socio – Economic Status of Workers 27
2.9 Survey Area 28
2.10 Selection of Variables 28
2.11 Discrete Choice Models 30
2.12 Multinomial Logit Models (MNL) 31
Chapter Three: Methodology 33
3.1 Survey Design 33
3.2 Derivation of Multinomial Logit Model 33
3.2.1 Modelling the Logit 36
3.2.2 Modelling the Probabilities 37
3.3 Statistical Package for the Social Science (SPSS) 38
3.4 Utility Function 38
Chapter Four: Results and Discussion 39
4.1 Sample Size and Response Rate 39
4.2 Cross Tabulation Results 42
4.2.1 The influence of Personal income on Mode choice 42
4.2.2 Influence of Workers position in Household on Mode Choice 48
4.2.3 Influence of Travel Time on Mode Choice 50
4.2.4 Effect of Home Location on Travel Mode
4.3 Regression Analysis using SPSS
Chapter Five: Conclusion and Recommendations
5.1 Conclusion 60
5.2 Recommendation 60
Modal split can be defined as the proportionate division of the total number of person trips between different
modes of travel. Modal split model predicts how people choose different modes of travel for different trip
purposes. Built environment influence the utility of travel both directly and indirectly but the utility gains are
different for different group of travellers, for different trip purposes and different modes (Reilly and Landis,
2003). A widely adopted approach for modal split analysis is the logit model (Ben- Akiva and Lerman, 1985).
Recent experiment using logit models /spatial interaction models in order to map out the freight transport in
Europe has been carried out by Tavasszy (1999), who showed the sustainability of logit models also for the
goods transport sector. Transportation modes include walking, bicycling, transit, and using a vehicle (either as
a driver or passenger).Modal split can be expressed numerically as a fraction, ratio or percentage of the total
number of trips. Many different procedures have been developed to derive this split in the transportation
planning process, all based on the assumptions that, of a given total travel demand the proportion carried by
bus, tube, surface railway or private motor car will depend on the standing of each mode of transport in
relation to its competitors.
Modal split model is the third step of travel demand analysis, it forms an integral part of the transport
development strategy of any surveyed district. The identification of the factors which influence modal split
provides the basis for modal split modelling. The volume of daily travel as a result of journey to work makes
a critical contribution to the overall volume of movement in towns and cities. Horton et al. (1969) indicated
that among all the traffic generated from the home in urban areas, journey to work normally dominates, both
in importance and relative numbers. The uneven distribution of work trips during the day often contributes to
the unpleasant phenomenon of congestion experienced during the peak hours.
Many metropolitan areas are plagued by a continuing increase in traffic congestion resulting in
Motorist frustration rate.
Longer travel times
Increase freight transportation cost.
Increase accidents and automobile insurance rates
More fuel consumption and
Deterioration in air quality.
These problems have been aggravated by the prevailing economic predicament. The inconsistent rise in the
prices of vehicles and spare parts has made urban travels costly, time consuming and frustrating. In Nigeria,
the substantial increase of petroleum products in recent years has brought about high increase in transport
fares. In urban areas, however; the effect of modal split is quite significant and greatly influenced by transport
policy decision, socio-economic characteristics of workers as well as the service characteristics of the various
existing modes of transport (Black, 1981).
Modal choice, which is the focus of this research, involves procedures for allocating trips among various
competing travel modes. Some of the methods that have been used in modal choice analysis include
Discriminant Analysis (Lisinge, 1996 )
Probit ( Banister and Hall, 1981 )
Logit model (Pundo and Fraser, 2006).
Behavioural Models (Owolabi, 2009)
The behavioural model is quite robust in the variability of time, cost, flexibility and convenience etc.
1.2 Types of Modal split Models
There are two types of mode split models namely Trip – End and Trip – Interchange Models
1. Trip – End Models: These models are applied before trips are distributed, and
predict transit shares as a function of independent variables such as
i. Auto ownership in the zone
ii. Residential density
iii. Distance from Central Business District (CBD)
iv. Income level
They are suitable for small urban areas where transit is basically a “social service” or in developing countries
where mode choice is almost completely determined by income and auto ownership.
2. Trip – Interchange Models: These models are applied after trip distribution, and
predict transit shares as a function of
i. Relative travel time between competing modes
ii. Relative travel cost
iii. Economic status of trip makers
iv. Relative service
1.3 Aim and Objectives
The aim of this research is to examine the characteristics of work trips undertaken by civil servants within
Minna metropolis with a view to identifying the associated problems and proffer solutions to them.
The objectives of this research are
To appraise the modal split of work trips in the study area.
To develop models for the trips’ evaluation.
To proffer solution to the problems of work trips’ mode accessibility in the study area.
1.4 Justification for the Study
It is well recognized that one of the most important tasks in urban transport planning is to device a frame
work that will enable each mode play its role. This can be done only if the common purpose of all modes is
acknowledged. The present economic recession has made it difficult for the low and middle income groups to
commute to work. Unfortunately, too, the existing public transport system [motorcycle, buses, and cars] are
inadequate in their coverage and level of service. They charge very high fares and their services do not permit
trips. This makes it necessary for workers to change mode several times before reaching their workplace.
These multiple change of mode translates to high cost and long travel times.
Journey to work should be as short and precise as possible. It should also be free of any obstacle. Transport
authorities can only assist to achieve this if the character of these movements can be identified. Extensive
works have been reported by Daniel’s and Mogridge (1981). Maunder and Mbara (1993, 1995a, and 1995b)
have on their part carried out extensive studies on the urban bus sector in Harare (Zimbabwe). Amongst
others, they investigated the effect of ownership on the performance of stage bus services, the effects of
introducing commuter omnibus services in Harare and the effects of regular fare increases on stage bus
Results of their first work indicated that public sector ownership does not necessarily lead to decline
productivity and operational performance. However, improvement in level of service under public sector
ownership appeared to have been achieved at a cost, since most of the buses were acquired through borrowing
hence while level of service improved, the financial performance deteriorated.
On the introduction of commuter omnibuses, the following conclusions were, made;
i. Supply and capacity of public transport system in Harare increased
ii. The level of service improved as shown by a reduction in passenger waiting time
iii. Fares tended to rise especially during peak hours and congestion at major locations
in the city centre increased.
Finally, the third project showed that regular fare increases result in a decrease in bus patronage, with most of
the passenger’s resistance to fare increase being for short distance route or journeys. However, most of the
research has been carried out in developed countries. There is, therefore the need for studies to examine the
factors that influence work trips characteristics in developing countries of the world- Africa in particular. This
will provide basis for comparing work trip characteristics of different areas and also provide transportation
policy makers information to base different transport decision.
1.5 Scope of the Study
The scope of this study is limited to the major workplaces in Minna town. The activities of informal sectors
i.e. hawkers and service oriented workers with highly mobile employment and whose work location covers a
large area are not considered. This is because their journey to work is erratic and cannot be determined easily.
1.6 Description of the Study Area
The study area is Minna metropolis in Niger State. Minna is the capital of Niger State which was created on
3rd February, 1976 from what used to be called North-West State during the military regime of General
Murtala Ramat Mohammed. The state is located between latitudes 3.200 east and longitudes 11.300 north.
Niger State is located in the middle belt of Nigeria and bordered in the North by Zamfara, to the Northwest by
Kebbi, to the South by Kogi. Kaduna and (FCT) Abuja border the State to the Northeast and Southeast
respectively. Furthermore, the State shares a common international boundary with the Republic of Benin.
Minna – Niger State has a land mass of 76,000km2 about 9% of Nigeria’s total land area. This makes the state
one of the largest in the country. It is called the “power state” and earned the nickname because of the Kainji
dam which supplies electricity to Nigeria and most part of West Africa. Other dams are the Shiroro and Jebba
dam which are also located in Niger State. Niger State has a beautiful landscape with various rocky hills
around with some towns built in the valley like Suleja. The natives are mostly farmers and the land is very
fertile with good harvest. Niger state played an important role in the history of Nigeria; indeed it is in this
state, Zungeru, to be precise that the capital of Northern Nigeria sat between 1902 -1916. It was in Zungeru
in Niger State that Northern and Southern Nigeria was amalgamated by Fredrick Lugard in 1914. It was also
in Zungeru that the first president of Nigeria Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe was born.
Fig 1.1 shows the map of Niger state while Fig 1.2 shows the Minna street guide map (the study area)
depicting some major streets, Level crossing, Bridge, Hospital , Residential areas, Ministries e.t.c.
Fig 1.1 Map of Niger State-Nigeria
Fig 1.2 Minna Street Guide Map (the study area) Niger State- Nigeria
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