Political Party Defections and Democratic Growth in Nigeria 2019 -2023
Abstract
This quantitative survey research, employing a structured questionnaire, aimed to investigate the motivations behind political party defections in Nigeria and their implications for democratic growth. The study gathered data from a sample of 120 respondents, employing a convenient sampling technique to ensure diversity in responses. The chosen research design aligned with a positivist research philosophy, emphasizing the systematic collection of numerical data to analyze patterns, relationships, and trends within the context of political party defections (Saunders et al., 2016). The survey revealed that the majority of respondents were aware of their respective party’s internal dynamics, with a high percentage indicating a moderate to high level of awareness. The hypotheses were tested using a t-test with an assumed mean of 0, and the results indicated a significant impact of political party defections on both the patterns and trends from 2019 to 2023 and the consequences for the quality of governance and public trust. Specifically, the findings revealed a substantial agreement among respondents that political party defections hinder democratic growth, erode public trust in political institutions, and have a negative impact on governance quality. The mean scores from the t-test further supported these conclusions. In conclusion, the study underscores the intricate motivations driving political party defections in Nigeria and emphasizes their substantial impact on democratic stability. Recommendations include fostering internal party cohesion and strengthening legal frameworks to deter frivolous defections. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the political landscape in Nigeria, offering insights for policymakers and researchers alike.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Background to the Study
Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, embarked on a journey of democratic governance in 1999 following its transition from military rule. This transition marked a pivotal moment in the nation’s history, signifying a shift towards political pluralism and the establishment of democratic institutions. The multifaceted nature of this democratic terrain, characterized by a diverse and dynamic political landscape, has been extensively documented (Adamu et al., 2020; Adetula, 2019; Agbese, 2023). This period has seen the emergence of numerous political parties, contributing to the intricate nature of Nigerian politics.
Within this democratic framework, a notable and recurring phenomenon has been the act of elected officials switching allegiance from one political party to another, commonly referred to as political party defections. The years from 2019 to 2023 have witnessed a surge in such defections, prompting critical questions about their implications for the nation’s democratic growth. This surge aligns with the findings of Adamu et al. (2020) and Adetula’s (2019) exploration of money politics and electoral violence, which underline the challenges faced by Nigeria in achieving free and fair elections.
Political party defections in Nigeria have become emblematic of the fluidity inherent in the nation’s political landscape (Agbese, 2023). The motivations driving these defections are diverse, encompassing ideological misalignments, personal ambitions, and disagreements among elected officials (Adamu et al., 2020). The study by Agbese (2023) on the 2015 Nigerian presidential election sheds light on how money, a powerful motivator, became a significant factor influencing political decisions, further contributing to the prevalence of defections. These shifts challenge the stability of political parties and create a complex environment where loyalty to party ideals is often overshadowed by individual interests.
Understanding the dynamics of political party defections is paramount for comprehending the broader democratic processes and governance in Nigeria. The study by Aidt et al. (2023) on vote-buying emphasizes the intricate relationship between money and politics, suggesting that defections might be driven by financial considerations. Additionally, the work of Eme and Onuigbo (2019) on the challenges of the legal basis of political financing in Nigeria provides insights into the institutional factors that may contribute to the occurrence of defections. The interplay between financial incentives, legal frameworks, and individual aspirations creates a complex web that influences the democratic landscape.
The consequences of political party defections extend beyond the immediate act of switching allegiance. They can impact the stability of democratic institutions, which is crucial for the consolidation of the democratic process (Nichter & Hidalgo, 2022). The research by Ajani (2023) on the annulment of the June 12 Presidential election sheds light on historical instances where political decisions, such as annulments, were made to secure political interests. The surge in defections from 2019 to 2023 raises concerns about the potential destabilization of democratic institutions, as the loyalties of elected officials become increasingly volatile.
Moreover, the quality of governance is significantly influenced by political party defections. The work of Eme and Onuigbo (2022) on the implications of militarizing elections in Nigeria emphasizes how the political environment affects the governance structure. The continuous shifts in party allegiances may lead to a fragmented and less effective governance system, as elected officials prioritize individual interests over collective responsibilities. This poses a challenge to the delivery of public services and the fulfilment of electoral promises.
Public trust in the democratic process is another critical aspect influenced by political party defections. The research by Nichter (2022) on votes for survival and clientelism suggests that such shifts may erode public confidence in the political system. The electorate may perceive these defections as opportunistic and self-serving, leading to a disillusionment with the democratic process. The consequences of diminished public trust are far-reaching, affecting civic engagement, political participation, and the overall health of the democratic system.
In conclusion, Nigeria’s journey through democratic governance since 1999 has been characterized by a complex and dynamic political landscape. The surge in political party defections from 2019 to 2023 adds another layer of intricacy to this landscape, prompting critical questions about its impact on democratic growth. The motivations behind these defections, ranging from ideological differences to personal ambitions, underscore the nuanced nature of Nigerian politics. Understanding the dynamics of political party defections is crucial for comprehending the broader democratic processes and governance in the nation. The consequences of these defections, including their impact on the stability of institutions, the quality of governance, and public trust, necessitate careful consideration to ensure the continued development of a robust and resilient democratic system in Nigeria.
Statement of Problem
The surge in political party defections in Nigeria from 2019 to 2023 raises pressing questions about its implications for the stability and growth of the nation’s democracy. This phenomenon, marked by elected officials switching allegiance from one political party to another, has become a recurrent feature in Nigerian politics (Adamu et al., 2020; Agbese, 2023). The motivations behind these defections are diverse, encompassing ideological misalignments, personal ambitions, and disagreements among political actors (Adamu et al., 2020).
The problem lies in the potential destabilization of democratic institutions, which are crucial for the consolidation of the democratic process (Nichter & Hidalgo, 2022). The fluidity of the political landscape, as illustrated by the frequent party defections, challenges the cohesiveness of political parties and raises questions about the legitimacy of the electoral process (Agbese, 2023). The consequences of this instability extend to the quality of governance, as elected officials prioritize individual interests over collective responsibilities (Eme & Onuigbo, 2022).
Moreover, the act of political party defections may erode public trust in the democratic system. The electorate may perceive these shifts as opportunistic and self-serving, potentially leading to a decline in civic engagement and political participation (Nichter, 2022). This diminishing trust poses a significant challenge to the overall health of Nigeria’s democratic system. Therefore, understanding the dynamics and consequences of political party defections is paramount for addressing the complexities faced by Nigerian democracy and ensuring its continued growth and stability.
Objectives of the Study
The specific objectives of this study, which were pursued from 2019 to 2023, were as follows:
- To analyze the patterns and trends of political party defections in Nigeria from 2019 to 2023.
- To assess the impact of political party defections on the stability of democratic institutions during the specified period.
- To examine the consequences of political party defections on the quality of governance and public trust in Nigeria from 2019 to 2023.
Research Questions
This research aimed to address the following questions:
- What are the patterns and trends of political party defections in Nigeria from 2019 to 2023?
- How do political party defections influence the stability of democratic institutions during the specified period?
- What are the consequences of political party defections on the quality of governance and public trust in Nigeria from 2019 to 2023?
Research Hypotheses
To guide the research, the following hypotheses were formulated:
Null Hypotheses(H0):
- There is no significant relationship between political party defections and the stability of democratic institutions in Nigeria from 2019 to 2023.
- Political party defections have no considerable impact on the quality of governance in Nigeria during the specified period.
Alternative Hypotheses(H1):
- There is a significant relationship between political party defections and the stability of democratic institutions in Nigeria from 2019 to 2023.
- Political party defections have a considerable impact on the quality of governance in Nigeria during the specified period.
Significance of the Study
This research bears substantial significance on multiple fronts within the realm of political science. Firstly, it enriches the academic conversation surrounding political party defections, shedding light on their intricate implications for the advancement of democracy. By focusing on the Nigerian context, the study offers valuable contributions to the broader discourse on the challenges confronted by nascent democratic systems. The insights garnered here transcend borders, providing a nuanced understanding of the complexities inherent in the political evolution of emerging democracies.
Secondly, the findings hold practical implications for policymakers and political actors. By elucidating the potential consequences of political party defections on governance and political stability, the study equips decision-makers with critical insights. This knowledge is instrumental for crafting informed policies that address the challenges posed by party defections, ultimately fostering more resilient and stable political environments. Such insights are particularly pertinent in the Nigerian context, where the fluidity of political affiliations has been a notable characteristic.
Lastly, this study lays the groundwork for future research endeavours. It acts as a catalyst for a more profound exploration of the evolving dynamics within the Nigerian political landscape. The complexities surrounding political party defections are dynamic and multifaceted, and this research paves the way for subsequent inquiries to delve deeper into specific facets, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of the intricate interplay of factors shaping political behaviour in Nigeria. In essence, this study serves not only as a valuable contribution to existing academic knowledge but also as a beacon guiding future scholarly investigations into the evolving nature of political party dynamics in Nigeria and beyond.
Scope of the Study
This study focused on the period from 2019 to 2023, a crucial timeframe marked by general elections and significant political developments in Nigeria. The analysis centred on political party defections at the national level, encompassing both legislative and executive branches of government. While recognizing the presence of regional variations, the study primarily examined the overarching trends to draw comprehensive conclusions about the impact of political party defections on democratic growth.
Operational Definition of Terms
To ensure clarity and precision, the following key terms were defined operationally:
Political Party Defections: The act of elected officials switching their allegiance from one political party to another, either independently or as a group.
Democratic Growth: The qualitative and quantitative progress of democratic institutions and processes, including electoral systems, governance structures, and public participation.
Patterns and Trends: Refers to the recurring behaviours and developments observed in the occurrence of political party defections over the specified period.
Stability of Democratic Institutions: The ability of democratic structures, such as the electoral system, legislature, and executive, to function cohesively and withstand disruptive influences like party defections.
Quality of Governance: The effectiveness, transparency, and responsiveness of the government in addressing the needs and aspirations of the citizens.
Public Trust: The confidence and belief of the citizens in the democratic process, government institutions, and political actors.
National Level: Pertains to the political activities and developments at the federal level of the Nigerian government, involving both the executive and legislative branches.
Regional Variations: Recognizes the diversity and differences in political dynamics that may exist across different geographical regions within Nigeria.
References
- Onalopa, H., Francis, & Uzodike, U. (2021). Oil Corrupts Elections: The Political Economy of Vote Buying in Nigeria. African Studies Quarterly, 15(2), 1-21.
- Onuigbo, A.R., Innocent EO, Ikechukwu A. (2018). Political education in Nigeria: The Mobilisation Theory Thesis Perspective. Art Human Open Acc J. 2(5), 246-256.
- Onuoha, F., & Ojo, J. (2018, December 13th). Practice and Perils of Vote Buying in Nigeria’s Recent Elections. Conflict Trends. Accessed on 29th November 2020. Retrieved from https://www.accord.org.za/conflict-trends/practice-and-perils-of—vote-buying-in-nigeria’srecent-elections.
- Onyekpere, E. (2017a). Imperative of campaign finance reforms (1) March 13, 2017. Retrieved from https://punchng.com/imperative-of-campaign-finance-reforms-1/
- Onyekpere, E. (2017b). Imperative of campaign finance reforms (2) March 20, 2017. Retrieved from https://punchng.com/imperative-of-campaign-finance-reforms-1/
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