ABSTRACT
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has directed some countries of the world to
migrate from analogue to digital broadcasting service before June 17, 2015. This transition has
many challenges which have been approached in many ad hoc ways by several countries. This
study is aimed at formulating a model that could measure the degree of success of the digital
transition programme at any stage of the process. It uses control engineering approach,
particularly the state variable analysis, to direct the preparation and implementation of the
transition exercise. Success factors which include: teamwork across the value chain (T), strong
leadership (L(t)), effective communication strategy (C) and sufficient financial resources for the
transition (R), are identified as the key parameters of the transition. The result from the model
simulation shows that the degrees of success of the transition programme when the inputs are
bad, poor, fair, good and excellent are 18.40%, 36.80%, 55.2%, 73.60% and 92.00%
respectively. The study is significant in that it develops a model that could measure the degrees
of success of the programme, when the success factors (inputs) and the initial conditions (ıı),
are known. A model for sustainability of digital radio and television broadcasting is left for
future research.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page i
Approval Page ii
Certification iii
Declaration iv
Dedication v
Acknowledgements vi
Abstract viii
List of Figures ix
List of Tables x
Table of Contents xi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background of the Study 1
1.2 The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Guidelines 2
1.3 Regional/Country Transition Roadmaps 4
1.4 The Success Factors for Digital Transition Programme 5
1.4.1 Cooperation and coordination across the value chain 5
1.4.2 Strong leadership 5
1.4.3 Effective Communications Strategy 6
1.4.4 Sufficient Financial Resources for the Digital Implementing Team 6
1.5 Monitoring and Evaluation Scheme 6
1.6 The Problem Statement 7
1.7 Aim of the Study 7
1.8 Scope of the Study 8
1.9 Thesis Outline 8
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CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE 9
2.1 Introduction 9
2.2 Approaches to Digital Radio and Television Broadcasting 9
2.3 State Variable Analysis 35
2.4 Fuzzy Logic 36
2.5 Summary 37
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY 38
3.1 Introduction 38
3.2 The Conceptual Model 38
3.3 The State Transition Matrix 41
3.4 Method of Data Acquisition 45
3.4.1 The Model Simulation Procedure 46
3.4.2 The Flowchart of the Model Simulation. 47
3.5 The Expected Results of the Study 49
3.6 Summary 49
CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION OF RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 50
4.1 Introduction 50
4.2 Presentation of Results 50
4.3 Analysis of Results 54
4.4 Discussion of Results 60
4.5 Summary 61
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 62
5.1 Summary 62
5.2 Conclusions 63
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5.3 Challenges Encountered 63
5.3 Suggestions for Future Studies 63
REFERENCE 64
APPENDIX A 69
APPENDIX B 79
APPENDIX C
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
The transition from analogue to digital broadcasting may be described as one of the imports of
the digital revolution, which has changed the life and the environment of mankind positively.
Another importance of this revolution is the Internet, which has transformed human
communication, giving rise to changes in human interactions and the information society.
Analogue broadcasting is the dissemination of video and audio information contents which are
conveyed by modulating/demodulating the electromagnetic waves [1]. An analogue signal is
carried by the size of some attributes of the signal such as the amplitude, the frequency or the
phase of a voltage [2]. But digital broadcasting starts with the conversion of information contents
into digital bits of 0s and 1s.
These bits are transmitted by the electromagnetic waves to a receiving set that interprets the
digital bits in order to recover the original information contents [1]. A digital signal alternates
between 0 and 1 unlike its analogue counterpart which is continuous in nature [2]. In the digital
realm, when a microphone receives a voice signal (analogue signal), the speech is sampled and
given a digital value by a radio device [3]. Subsequently, a voice coder in that device does the
work of changing the voice signal into a digital data packet [3]. The transition from analogue to
digital broadcasting is simply a method of shifting the broadcasting of radio and television
programmes from an analogue format to a digital format [4]. This is very important because of
the numerous benefits that the latter has over the former. The benefits include provision of better
quality of sound/pictures and efficient utilization of the radio frequency spectrum [5].
Digitization provides additional radio and television programmes, it also guarantees portable and
mobile service reception [5]. Economically, digitization could increase the revenue generation
through reduction of transmission costs and provision of superior technology for storage and
processing of contents [6]. It also helps in job creation [4]. Socially, it has the ability to offer
distinct services to accommodate people with sight and hearing deficiencies [4].
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Apparently, it is these advantages of digital broadcasting that informed the ITU’s resolution in its
2006 Regional Radiocommunications Conference (RCC-06). The resolution directed all
countries of Europe, Africa, Middle East as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran to migrate from
analogue to digital broadcasting services by 2015 [4]. The mandate has set up a digital terrestrial
broadcasting plan on Very High Frequency (VHF) and Ultra High Frequency (UHF) bands [7].
The VHF band lies between 174 MHz and 230 MHz and the UHF band ranges from 470MHz to
862 MHz. Also, the mandate put in place a time table for the transition programme by setting
17th June 2006 as the kick off date and 17th June 2015 as the deadline. The deadline marks the
end of international protection for analogue broadcasting transmissions in the affected bands [8].
The implications of this mandate are multiple and diverse. Specifically, it comes with economic,
political, social and technological challenges which affect all the stakeholders in a variety of
ways and dimensions [8]. Economically, the consumers would be required to replace all
analogue receiving sets or upgrade them before they could receive digital broadcasting services
[6]. The content providers would be required to create enough quality contents to occupy the
multiple channels that could be available in order to avoid content recycling [8]. The signal
distributors need to invest in human capacity development and upgrade or make a total
replacement of all the analogue transmission equipment.
These conditions are to be met before the full dividends of digital services could be harnessed
[6]. Politically, the transition programme could not take place in a legislative vacuum, meaning
that it requires amendments to the existing legislations or the enactment of new ones [9]. The
environment may be affected negatively as digitization would generate extra electronic waste
which is capable of causing environmental degradation if left unchecked [9].
1.2 The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Guidelines
Being conscious of the above challenges, including the digital and economic divides along
regional/countries lines, the ITU has developed a workable guideline. This guideline intends to
serve as a basis upon which regions/countries could develop their individual functional roadmaps
for the migration process [10]. The guideline is dependent on functional frameworks required at
each level of the programme. It contains different tiers as stated in [14] and they include:
A. Policy and regulation,
B. Analogue Switch-Off (ASO),
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C. Market and business development,
D. Networks,
E. Roadmap development.
The tiers/layers A and B are for government driven migration exercise, layers C and D are for
market driven process and layer E is associated with both government and market driven
programmes [10]. This thesis is interested only in government driven digital transition
programme. The guideline is shown in figure 1.1 below.
Figure 1.1: ITU guidelines for digital transition [14]
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1.3 Regional/Country Transition Roadmaps
A roadmap is an instrument for prediction targeted at planning and executing a plan. It consists
of different stages which include project preparation, its development and implementation [12].
To ensure a defined sense of direction and timely arrive at a destination, some Regions/Countries
have come up with clear roadmaps to guide them in their journey to digitization. Common
Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is one of those regions that have put action
plans on ground to drive home the new technology. This roadmap provides a guide on regional
coordination in the areas of key policy, regulatory, operational and implementation issues [13].
The roadmap is given in [13] and it is shown in table 1.1 below.
Table 1.1: COMESA Roadmap to Digital Broadcasting for Its Member States [13]
No Activity Starting Date Ending Date Responsible Body
1. Set up National DTT migration
Committees
Mid 2009 April 2012 Member States
2. Stakeholder consultation Mid 2009 Ongoing until
after switch-over
Member States
3. Development of technical
specifications for STBs
January 2012 April 2012 ARICEA Technical
team
4. Development of harmonized
frequency plans
January 2012 June 2012 ARICEA Technical
Team
5. Regional and National spectrum
plans and interference review
June 2012 Every six months ARICEA
6. Consumer awareness Beginning 2009 Ongoing until
after switch-over
Member States
7. Annual DTT Forum Annually in
November
June 2015 COMESA
Secretariat
8. Adoption of DTT migration
strategic plan template
November 2011 January 2012 COMESA
Secretariat
9. Completion of national policy
and strategy plans on DTT
migration
December 2011 April 2012 Member States
10. Special Session for ICT Ministers May 2012 May 2012 COMESA
Secretariat
11. Digital Dividend Review Early 2012 End of 2012 ARICEA
12. Conduct DTT trials and DSO June 2012 December 2012 Member States
13. Dual illumination period Mid to End 2012 End of 2013 Member States
14 Monitoring and review 2012 Ongoing until
after switch-over
COMESA/ARICEA
15. Analogue Switch off June 2013 June 2014 Member States
[
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1.4 The Success Factors for the Digital Transition Programme
Based on observations from Countries that have already completed their digital transition
exercise, a number of parameters called success factors, have been identified. These factors are
capable of guaranteeing success in the digital migration exercise. They are stated in [10] as:
1. Cooperation and coordination across the value chain,
2. Strong leadership,
3. Effective communication strategy,
4. Sufficient financial resources for the ASO organization.
1.4.1 Cooperation and Coordination across the Value Chain
The government and the broadcasting industry are to work in collaboration in coordinating the
entire process. Based on that, the government is to determine the fundamental transition model
(policy making) and also draw the analogue switch-off timetable. The regulators have to
shoulder the responsibility of assigning radio frequency and as well, manage frequency licensing
[11]. From another view point, the broadcasters need to educate the consumers on key issues of
the programme by including publicity materials in their broadcast. The network operators are to
upgrade all analogue equipment to allow for digital broadcasting [11]. In a similar development,
the equipment manufacturers are required to produce enough quantities of receiving sets which
conform with the standards adopted by the concerned region [10].
On the part of the consumers, a total and timely commitment is required to fast track the process
in order to avoid unnecessary publicity during or after the analogue switch-off. A healthy
cooperation and coordination across the value chain would affect the digital migration exercise
positively.
1.4.2 Strong Leadership
Just as the force of inertia is reluctant to change, the digital transition process could suffer
reluctance if there is no strong leadership. The transition to digitization demands strong
leadership to set the machinery in motion. The government is to provide the required leadership
by stating why, when and how the transition process should go in a clear roadmap [10]. It is also
very important that a digital transition implementing team be set up to serve as a delivery van.
This team would be responsible for overseeing the transition exercise and ensuring its success.
For a successful transition to be achieved, the implementing team must be given a clear mandate
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by the government [10]. This study considers leadership as the key success factor hence the
government-led digital transition programme is concerned.
1.4.3 Effective Communications Strategy
The success of the transition programme is partly dependent on how well the consumers are
informed about the process. The communication strategy needs to be effective enough and the
consumers require comprehensive knowledge of the transition process. The basic pieces of
information needed by the consumers include: why analogue switch-off exercise should be
carried out, its possible advantages/disadvantages, the analogue switch-off date and the
equipment required to receive digital services [10]. This information should be timely
disseminated to consumers so as to adequately prepare them for the transition exercise [10].
1.4.4 Sufficient Financial Resources for the Digital Implementing Team
Countries differ population-wise and in terms of adopted broadcasting standards and for that
reason, the cost of the digital transition programme would surely differ across countries. Despite
these differences, each country should make available the minimum fund needed for the
transition so that the Implementing team could carry out its duties. The duties may range from
communication to consumers to marketing activities so as to help the vulnerable members of the
society [10]. This set of people could be reached by providing incentives to them or by
subsidizing the cost of receiver equipment [10].
1.5 Monitoring and Evaluation Scheme
Monitoring has to do with the watching and the checking of something over a period of time, in
order to see how it develops as well as the necessary changes that could be made [15]. A
dedicated digital transition implementing team is absolutely needed for monitoring and
evaluating the development of the transition exercise. Such a body is to concentrate its efforts on
monitoring the progress of the activities of other stakeholders in the transition exercise to ensure
a logical conclusion of the activities [12]. If any form of laxity is allowed in the monitoring and
evaluation of the exercise, then the success of the exercise would certainly be truncated [10].
Continuous monitoring and remedial actions are very needful. Based on that, COMESA has put
measures in place to monitor and evaluate the activities of its member states in the transition
programme [12].
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1.6 The Problem Statement
A close study of the analogue to digital broadcasting transition programme, from the declaration
of the mandate to the current digital status of the various stakeholders, reveals some
conscious/unconscious tendencies. Along the line, these tendencies tend to promote the business
interest of certain groups of stakeholders but militate against a smooth transition by others. First,
both the mandate and the transition process are market driven. They appear to be interested in
exploiting the seemingly great economic and commercial opportunities offered by the new
technology – digital broadcasting. Perhaps as a result of the interest in the economic gains, there
are few, if any, literatures to show any input from the research community to direct the
government-led digital transition process.
This has given rise to an obvious scarcity of theoretical models or analytical tools to guide the
formulation and implementation of the digital transition. In a distinct term, there are no analytical
models for the study, analysis, monitoring or evaluation of any progress made in the
government-led analogue to digital transition process. The analytical models are lacking both at
the global level and at the level of individual stakeholders. Both the ITU transition guideline and
the transition roadmaps of individual stakeholders could best be described as procedural, in both
concept and practice. They are designed to achieve specific market objectives, but lacking in
fundamental principles for general applications.
1.7 Aim of the Study
This study is designed to fill the apparent scientific vacuum in the government-led digital
transition process, as highlighted in the problem statement. Specifically, it proposes to develop a
theoretical model that could be used as an analytical tool to assess the levels of progress (degree
of success) at any stage of the transition programme. This progress is based on a set of success
factors adjudged to guarantee a smooth digital transition process, such as definite actions taken
(or not taken) by any constituted authorities or authorized individuals in the transition process.
Precisely, the objectives of this thesis include:
i. To obtain the derivatives of each of the success factors involved in the transition exercise.
ii. To identify the important phases of the transition programme in tandem with ITU and
COMESA roadmaps.
iii. To identify other possible factor(s) that could influence the transition prograame if any.
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1.8 Scope of the Study
The study is limited to developing a theoretical (mathematical) model that could serve as an
analytical tool for monitoring and evaluating the progress made at any stage of the digital
transition programme. The model is based on definite actions (or inactions) taken by any
constituted authorities in the transition process. Computer simulation of the model is conducted
to calibrate and test the validity and potential of the model.
1.9 Thesis Outline
The rest of this study is organized as follows; Chapter (2) reviews the relevant literatures to the
study while chapter three presents the methodology adopted in this work. Chapter four reports
the simulation results, their analysis and discussions. The summary and conclusions of the study
as well as suggestions for future studies are treated in the last chapter, which is chapter (5).
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